INTEGRATION WITHOUT PROTECTION? EAEU MEMBERSHIP, MIGRANT RIGHTS AND HOUSEHOLD RESILIENCE IN KYRGYZSTAN AND UZBEKISTAN (2008-2026)

Affiliation
Tashkent State University of Economics image/svg+xml
Mehnat iqtisodiyoti va inson kapitali · 4 · 2026

Abstract

Regional economic integration is expected to protect labour migrants by turning informal mobility into rights-based mobility. This paper tests that expectation by comparing Kyrgyzstan, a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) since 2015, with Uzbekistan, an EAEU observer whose citizens remain subject to Russia’s patent regime. Using a structured literature review and a comparative-historical analysis of three external shocks (2008-2009, 2014-2016 and 2024-2026), the paper finds, first, that the membership “rights premium” was real during the ruble crisis: in 2015-2016 the number of Kyrgyz citizens in Russia rose by 7.6%, while the numbers of Tajik and Uzbek citizens fell by 10.6% and 16.3%. Second, status-blind securitization has reversed this premium: Kyrgyz entries into Russia fell by 23.9% between the third quarters of 2024 and 2025, against 15.0% for Uzbekistan. Third, membership coincides with a concentration trap, as about 93% of Kyrgyz remittances originate in Russia, whereas Uzbekistan has diversified its destinations faster. The paper conceptualizes integration status as a migration institution whose protective value depends on the destination state’s political choices, and it proposes household-level research designs and policy measures for both countries.

Keywords

Eurasian Economic Union, labour migration, migrant rights, remittances, household resilience, securitization


References

  1. kg (2024) MFA: Number of Kyrgyz citizens in Russia is decreasing. Bishkek: 24.kg news agency. Available at: https://24.kg/english/312641_MFA_Number_of_Kyrgyzstanis_in_Russia_is_de creasing/
  2. Abadie, A. (2021) ‘Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects’, Journal of Economic Literature, 59(2), pp. 391-425
  3. Babagaliyeva, Z., Kayumov, A., Mahmadullozoda, N. and Mustaeva, N. (2017) Migration, remittances and climate resilience in Tajikistan. Working paper
  4. Bakhoviddinova, Y.M. (2025) ‘Foreign experience in regulating external labor migration: Lessons for Uzbekistan’, Acumen: International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 2(10), pp. 204-208
  5. Bekbolotova, S., Djanibekov, N. and Herzfeld, T. (2026) ‘How does regional economic integration impact trade in small economies? Evidence from Armenia and Kyrgyzstan’s EAEU accession’, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 67(7), pp. 829-857. https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2025.2475904
  6. Bokayev, B., Ismailova, R. and Torebekova, Z. (2020) ‘Affecting international migration trends through a multi-faceted policy: Kazakhstan within Central Asia and the EAEU’, Studia Politica: Romanian Political Science Review, 20(2), pp. 223-243
  7. Bondarenko, K.A. (2021) ‘Labor migration from Uzbekistan: A family and community promoted big bang’, Regional Research of Russia, 11(2), pp. 273-284. DOI:10.1134/S2079970521020039
  8. Callaway, B. and Sant’Anna, P.H.C. (2021) ‘Difference-in-differences with multiple time periods’, Journal of Econometrics, 225(2), pp. 200-230
  9. Danchev, V. and Porter, M.A. (2020) Migration networks: Applications of network analysis to macroscale migration patterns. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2002.10992
  10. Daniiarova, G.M. (2023) ‘Eurasian Economic Union: Problems and perspectives of labour migrants from Kyrgyzstan to Russia’, Refugee Watch, 63
  11. Delovarova, L.F. and Sultanmuratov, N. (2023) ‘Migration in Central Asian countries in the context of EEU integration and new international realities’, DEMIS. Demographic Research, 3(3), pp. 71-86. https://doi.org/10.19181/demis.2023.3.3.5
  12. Egamberdiev, B. (2025) Household resilience capacity and food security in Central Asia. Doctoral dissertation. Halle (Saale): Martin-Luther- Universität Halle-Wittenberg
  13. Egamberdiev, B., Bobojonov, I., Kuhn, L. and Glauben, T. (2023) ‘Household resilience capacity and food security: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan’, Food Security, 15, pp. 967-988. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-023-01369-
  14. ESCAP (2026) Strengthening migration governance in North and Central Asia. Policy brief. Bangkok: United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
  15. Eurasian Development Bank (2021) Uzbekistan and the EAEU: Prospects and potential impact of economic integration. Presentation. Almaty: EDB Centre for Integration Studies
  16. FAO (2021) Seasonal migration in Europe and Central Asia in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
  17. Gazeta. uz (2026) ‘Around 1.4 million citizens of Uzbekistan work abroad as labor migration patterns shift’, 18 August. Available at: https://www.gazeta.uz/en/2026/08/18/migration/
  18. ICMPD (2023) ICMPD migration outlook: Eastern Europe and Central Asia 2023. Vienna: International Centre for Migration Policy Development
  19. IOM (2016) Migrant vulnerabilities and integration needs in Central Asia: Root causes, social and economic impact of return migration. Regional field assessment in Central Asia 2016. International Organization for Migration
  20. IOM (2023) Migration governance indicators: The Kyrgyz Republic- Second profile 2022. International Organization for Migration
  21. IOM (2026) Kyrgyzstan migration situation report: July-December 2025. International Organization for Migration
  22. IOM (2025) Understanding the pre-departure information ecosystem in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. International Organization for Migration
  23. Karymshakov, K., Aseinov, D. and Azhgaliyeva, D. (2024) Drought and migration: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic. ADBI Working Paper No. 1490. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. https://doi.org/10.56506/ILSU5435
  24. Kimsanova, B., Herzfeld, T., Umirbekov, A., Hermans, K., Müller, D. and Djanibekov, N. (n.d.) Migration patterns: The complex roles of poverty and weather extremes. Unpublished manuscript. Halle (Saale): Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO)
  25. Kuldasheva, Z. (2024) ‘Labor migration in Central Asia: Issues, impacts, and strategic solutions’, Slovak Journal of International Relations, 22(2), pp. 162-182. https://doi.org/10.53465/SJIR.1339-2751.2024.2.162-
  26. Mayorova, M.A., Ugryumova, M.A. and Gerasimov, D.V. (2024) ‘The impact of labour migration on labour productivity in the EAEU countries’, Journal of Regional and International Competitiveness, 5(3), pp. 4-10. https://doi.org/10.52957/2782-1927-2024-5-3-4-10
  27. Mogilevskii, R. (2020) Labour market and technological development in Central Asia. IPPA Working Paper No. 58. Bishkek: University of Central Asia
  28. Murzakulova, A. (2020) Rural migration in Kyrgyzstan: Drivers, impact and governance. MSRI Research Paper No. 7. Bishkek: University of Central Asia
  29. OSCE and ACTED (2009) Impact of the global financial crisis on labour migration from Kyrgyzstan to Russia: Qualitative overview and quantitative survey. Bishkek: OSCE Centre in Bishkek
  30. Poletayev, D. (2019) Addressing the challenges of labour migration within the Eurasian Economic Union. Analytical report. Vienna: Prague Process, ICMPD
  31. Rakhimov, K. and Azizova, A. (2022) ‘Comparative analysis of the EAEU and the EU common labour markets’, Vestnik RUDN. International Relations, 22(1), pp. 94-110. https://doi.org/10.22363/2313-0660-2022-22- 1-94-110
  32. Ruhs, M. (2013) The price of rights: Regulating international labor migration. Princeton: Princeton University Press
  33. Sagynbekova, L. (2017) International labour migration in the context of the Eurasian Economic Union: Issues and challenges of Kyrgyz migrants in Russia. IPPA Working Paper No. 39. Bishkek: University of Central Asia
  34. Stark, O. and Bloom, D.E. (1985) ‘The new economics of labor migration’, American Economic Review, 75(2), pp. 173-178
  35. Tay, T.K. (2021) Poverty, labour migration and remittance in Eurasian countries. SSRN Working Paper. Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3825407
  36. Times of Central Asia (2026) ‘Russia still dominates Uzbek remittances despite falling share’. Available at: https://timesca.com/russia- dominates-uzbek-remittances-falling-share/
  37. Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union (2014). Signed in Astana on 29 May 2014
  38. World Bank (2026a) Kyrgyz Republic: Macro poverty outlook. Washington, DC: World Bank Group
  39. World Bank (2026b) World Development Indicators: Personal remittances, received (BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT; BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS). Dataset. Washington, DC: World Bank (Accessed: 24 September 2026)
  40. Wrethed, J.E.M. (2025) Resilient migration: Feedback mechanisms and transnational persistence in the Central Asia-Russia corridor. Bachelor’s thesis. Lund: Lund University

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Most read articles by the same author(s)